July 20, 2017

Key Takeaways from NBC/WSJ Trump Counties Survey

In a survey conducted only in counties that fueled Donald Trump’s victory last November, his job rating stands at 50%, just 10 points higher than his national job rating in the June NBC/WSJ poll. The poll was conducted among adults in two groups of counties in 16 states that were key in the 2016 presidential election: Flip counties, where Barack Obama won in 2012 and Donald Trump won in 2016, and Surge counties, where Donald Trump performed a net 20 points or higher in 2016 than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

In both types of counties, Trump’s job approval rating is lower than his share of the vote in November 2016. In flip counties, Trump received 58% of the vote last November, but his job rating now stands at just 44%. And in surge counties, Trump received 65% of the vote on Election Day, but his job rating today is 56%. Overall, in these Trump counties, there is strong support for his bargaining with companies to keep jobs in America, as well as his actions on North Korea and Syria. However, majorities in these Trump counties oppose his dealings with Russia, his refusal to release his personal tax returns, and his use of Twitter. Indeed, Trump’s personality and style is the item most likely to be cited on both sides of the coin–where Trump has lived up to expectations and where he has fallen short. So far, personality is overriding policy in the Trump administration. On the positive side, residents of Trump counties say he is not a typical politician and is shaking things up in Washington; on the negative side, personality is again the driving force, with respondents most likely to say that Trump keeps making personal attacks that set a bad example for the country. Before Republican efforts to replace the Affordable Care Act with their own plan were pulled, just 12% of residents in these Trump counties said that the healthcare legislation passed by the House of Representatives and supported by Donald Trump was a good idea.

Click here for the poll’s topline results.